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Colonial Pine Hills, South Dakota 7 Day Weather Forecast
Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation
NWS Forecast for Colonial Pine Hills SD
National Weather Service Forecast for: Colonial Pine Hills SD
Issued by: National Weather Service Rapid City, SD
Updated: 3:29 am MDT Jun 6, 2025
 
Today

Today: A slight chance of showers between 11am and noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon.  Patchy dense fog before 10am.  Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
T-storms and
Patchy Dense
Fog
Tonight

Tonight: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm.  Mostly clear, with a low around 50. South wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.
Chance
T-storms then
Mostly Clear
Saturday

Saturday: A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm.  Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Sunny then
Slight Chance
T-storms
Saturday
Night
Saturday Night: A chance of showers and thunderstorms.  Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.  Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Chance
Showers

Sunday

Sunday: Sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Sunny then
Sunny and
Breezy
Sunday
Night
Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Mostly Clear
and Breezy
then Mostly
Clear
Monday

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Mostly Sunny

Monday
Night
Monday Night: Clear, with a low around 49. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Clear

Tuesday

Tuesday: Sunny, with a high near 81.
Sunny

Hi 67 °F Lo 50 °F Hi 77 °F Lo 51 °F Hi 68 °F Lo 50 °F Hi 72 °F Lo 49 °F Hi 81 °F

Hazardous Weather Outlook
 

Today
 
A slight chance of showers between 11am and noon, then a chance of showers and thunderstorms after noon. Patchy dense fog before 10am. Otherwise, partly sunny, with a high near 67. Southwest wind 5 to 10 mph becoming east in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Tonight
 
A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms, mainly before 7pm. Mostly clear, with a low around 50. South wind around 5 mph becoming west after midnight.
Saturday
 
A 20 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms after 5pm. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77. West wind 5 to 15 mph becoming northwest in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 30 mph.
Saturday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly cloudy, with a low around 51. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday
 
Sunny, with a high near 68. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 15 mph increasing to 15 to 20 mph in the afternoon. Winds could gust as high as 40 mph.
Sunday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 50. Breezy, with a northwest wind 10 to 20 mph, with gusts as high as 35 mph.
Monday
 
Mostly sunny, with a high near 72. Northwest wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 30 mph.
Monday Night
 
Clear, with a low around 49. North wind 5 to 15 mph becoming west in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 25 mph.
Tuesday
 
Sunny, with a high near 81.
Tuesday Night
 
Mostly clear, with a low around 59.
Wednesday
 
A slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 85.
Wednesday Night
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 59.
Thursday
 
A chance of showers and thunderstorms. Mostly sunny, with a high near 77.

 

Forecast from NOAA-NWS for Colonial Pine Hills SD.

Weather Forecast Discussion
460
FXUS63 KUNR 060814
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
214 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some dense fog this morning mainly east of the Black Hills
- Isolated/scattered showers/thunderstorms this afternoon/evening
  and Saturday afternoon/evening
- Warmer/drier Sunday through Tuesday
- Active southwest flow developing Wednesday through the end of
  next week

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Thursday)
Issued at 208 AM MDT Fri Jun 6 2025

08z surface analysis had weak high over the CWA with
light/variable winds. Antecedent moisture and mostly clear skies
allowing fog/stratus (per METARs/nighttime microphysics RGB) to
develop early this morning, particularly east of the Black Hills
where a Dense Fog Advisory has been hoisted through 15z. Water
vapour loop had upper trough from Hudson Bay to CA with a
shortwave over the ID/MT/WY border, which will affect the area
later today.

Early this morning, areas of Dense Fog will affect the western SD
plains east of the Black Hills. Will continue to monitor if
expansion is needed.

Rest of today/tonight, ID/MT/WY shortwave slides southeast into
the central plains. Main forcing southwest of the CWA, but diurnal
heating will support 250-500J/kg mean SBCAPE from the Black Hills
south/southwest. North end of shortwave combined with terrain
will be enough for isolated/scattered afternoon/evening
convection. Shear is relatively weak with CAMs not painting any
concerning strength to updrafts. Temperatures will be near
guidance.

Saturday, fast-moving upper low over central Canada drags a cool
front through the CWA with 2-4mb/3hr pressure rises and 20-40kt
850mb winds. Breezy/windy spots (NBM 20-40% chance >45mph gusts)
foreseen. Mean SBCAPE along cool front ~500J/kg with increasing
0-6km bulk shear. Wouldn`t be surprised to see a few strong storms
over the far northern reaches of our CWA, but best combination
further northeast, which is inline with SPC HREF portrayal/Day 2
Outlook. Temperatures will be near guidance and much closer to
summer than recent days.

Sunday through Wednesday, upper ridge builds from the Rockies
into the northern Plains. Thermal ridge perks up for
Tuesday/Wednesday with highs careening into the 80s. Upper trough
develops over the western CONUS for the end of the week creating
southwest flow over the northern Plains. If enough moisture
becomes available, suspect active/severe weather season will
begin given subjective pattern recognition and a hint from CSU MLP
guidance. Most ensemble guidance supports temperatures slightly
above normal.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued At 952 PM MDT Thu Jun 5 2025

In the wake of afternoon/evening showers, areas of BR/FG are
developing over the western/central SD plains and far
northeastern WY. MVFR to localized LIFR conditions have already
materialized, with these conditions expected to expand through the
night. Dense fog and accompanying VLIFR conditions may develop
over portions of the west central SD plains by 09z and persist for
several hours. Most significant reductions to vsbys are expected
to remain east of KRAP, and upper-level clouds arriving from the
west may disrupt fog disruption entirely in and around the TAF
site. However, a brief period of LIFR conditions cannot be ruled
out.

Improvement to VFR conditions is expected area-wide by around 15z,
but additional SHRA/TSRA may lead to reduced cigs/vsbys again
tomorrow morning and afternoon.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM MDT /10 AM CDT/ this morning for
     SDZ002-013-014-030>032-042>044-046-047-049-073-076>078.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Helgeson
AVIATION...Sherburn
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Forecast Discussion from: NOAA-NWS Script developed by: El Dorado Weather






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